Starbucks launches fresh new drinks that could boost its turnaround efforts
Starbucks is betting that an extra shot of protein could be the jolt its turnaround needs. The coffee giant on Monday launched a new line-up of protein lattes and cold foam drinks in the U.S. and Canada. They will be available on the menu year-round. Shares of Starbucks rose more than 2% — chipping away at year-to-date declines that are now under 7%. The stock has, however, underperformed the S & P 500 , which has gained 13% in 2025. Wells Fargo sees these new protein beverages as a “next potential catalyst” for the company’s U.S. sales, the analyst wrote in a research note to clients Monday. They estimate the launch could add roughly 250 basis points, or 2.5 percentage points, to U.S. same-store sales. That translates into about $720 million in sales if “attach rates” – how often customers add protein in their regular order – hit 10%. “Protein is on trend and could broaden Starbucks’ customer base,” the analysts wrote. The bank estimates the U.S. market for quick-service protein drinks is about $10 billion — and if Starbucks captures even a 10% share, it could represent a $1 billion sales opportunity. Starbucks has a history of experimenting with new beverages to increase sales, though results have been mixed. Former CEO Laxman Narasimhan pushed new drinks during his short tenure, including Summer-Berry Refreshers and Lavender Oatmilk Matcha, but they didn’t materially shift the company’s growth trajectory. Before him, CEO Howard Schultz tried to stir momentum with a high-profile launch of Oleato, an olive oil-infused coffee line, which generated buzz but ultimately failed to catch on with customers. The uneven track record shows the difficulty of finding a breakout hit that resonates across Starbucks’ customer base. That’s why, unlike past launches, current Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol introduced the protein beverages through his new “Starting 5” state-gate process, which is designed to test customer demand and operational processes in five coffeehouses before rolling out new products gradually to a wider and wider number of locations. Wells Fargo analysts highlighted the distinction, noting protein is Niccol’s “first major innovation under the new stage-gate process,” suggesting the structured approach increases the likelihood that protein drinks resonate with customers. Niccol also leaned on the stage gate testing model during his tenure as CEO of Chipotle , which helped him vet and eventually launch successful menu products like the queso blanco and lifestyle bowls. Wells Fargo analysts added that if successful, the protein initiative could “lend credibility to a host of recent turnaround efforts” under Niccol. In other words, it could be a proof point that could help bring investor confidence in Starbucks’ turnaround efforts, the latest of which include a recently announced restructuring plan involving store closures and corporate layoffs. These are actions that Wells Fargo estimates will generate more than $175 million in annual earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) savings. SBUX YTD mountain Starbucks YTD To be sure, the bank cautioned that Starbucks still faces plenty of near-term headwinds. The company’s core North American comps are expected to stay flat while rising coffee prices and a costly turnaround weigh on profitability . The analysts trimmed their fiscal year 2025 and fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, saying that the “long-term game is still in the early days” and execution risk remains high. That uncertainty is reflected in Starbucks stock. Shares are down about 10% since it reported fiscal third-quarter earnings, as investors demonstrated Starbucks is a “show me” story, meaning they need to see evidence of progress before the stock can advance. Wells Fargo has a price target of $105 per share and a buy rating on the stock. Bottom line While Starbucks’ near-term outlook may remain choppy, it is possible the new protein beverage platform could be a smart move that taps into consumer health trends and has the potential to boost sales by broadening its customer base. We have been watching for this launch since Starbucks first announced it, and see it as a smart move to get in on the protein craze. According to Starbucks, 70% of Americans are trying to add more protein to their diets, which shows considerable appetite for the new options. If executed well, the launch could mark an important step in Niccol’s turnaround strategy and help restore investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory. We maintain our buy-equivalent 1-rating and price target of $100. We do acknowledge that getting things back on track at Starbucks is taking longer than we had originally thought. But we continue to view the turnaround under Niccol as moving in the right direction. Our confidence in Niccol’s ability to pull it off remains high. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long SBUX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . 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