The ‘big lows’ in the stock market are not in yet, Bank of America says
While the major U.S. indexes are rebounding this week, Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey is signaling that the bottom in the U.S.-Iran war sell-off hasn’t been reached just yet. The survey’s investor sentiment metric moved to 5.6 in March from 8.2 in February. That metric is based on cash levels, equity allocation and global growth expectations of the survey participants. While strategist Michael Hartnett wrote Tuesday the drop came as “‘frothy bull’ sentiment” was disrupted by both the Middle East conflict and private credit concerns, the levels of several of the bank’s metrics are “far from uber-bear levels seen at recent big lows/good entry points for stocks & credit.” Hartnett contrasted where the several of the bank’s market signals stand now versus their levels at the lows reached following President Donald Trump’s “liberation day,” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Covid-19 and the 2011 downgrade of U.S. debt. Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator in the March survey was 8.5, which is a level that signals investors should sell rather than buy. Meanwhile, the survey participants are still 37% overweight in equities. In three of the previous four lows, investors were underweight stocks. Meanwhile, the bank’s cash rule is only at 4.3%, a neutral signal and well below the 5% that the bank determines is the buying signal. Lastly, the bank still sees positive breadth at 7%, which during other market bottoms has been severely inverted. Based on this data, the rally to start this week may not signify the lows have been hit yet. But part of the reason why the survey is not indicating too bearish of an outlook may be because participants still think the economy and markets can weather the military conflict. Hartnett wrote that while the survey found growth projections falling and inflation predictions rising — along with rate cut expectations declining — it didn’t change participants’ cyclical outlook. “No one pricing in recession…probability of hard landing just 5% (vs. 46% no landing, 44% soft landing),” he wrote.
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