The Daniel Jones Effect: Will Succesful QB Reclamations Change the Market?

How much is a quarterback worth?

In draft assets. In dollars. In years. In wins and in losses.

It’s the most important question for every NFL general manager and head coach. And the answer has become more complicated over the past few years. For quite some time, it was a pipe dream to think a franchise quarterback could come from anywhere other than the first round of the NFL Draft. It occasionally happened, sure, but it wasn’t something to plan around.

Now, however, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and, most recently, Daniel Jones have proved that teams can find elite quarterback production in free agency or on the trade market. Yes, they were all once first-round prospects, but these quarterbacks’ first and second (and sometimes third) teams cast them off. Now, most of them are putting up numbers that rival those of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. 

Jones won’t put up game tape that rivals those three MVPs. But his salary won’t rival those stars either — not even after the Colts extend him, which is reportedly their intention.

Who had Daniel Jones on their MVP candidate bingo card for 2025? (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

That’s where we’re seeing something interesting happening.

You can pay a quarterback too much. Just look at Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy and Trevor Lawrence, who are all trending that way. Given what we’re seeing from the Cowboys’ defense, Dak Prescott might even be overpaid. So, instead, maybe teams should find a veteran quarterback whose salary creates roster-building opportunities at every other position. It’s not that different from drafting a rookie quarterback whose salary is rent-controlled by the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement.

The difference is that these veteran quarterbacks need reclamation — rather than the development that rookies need.

There’s a murky difference between those two circumstances. A reclamation project has been an NFL staple for quite some time. The player knows what it takes to be a pro — and, more importantly, a QB1. He also knows what it feels like to lose that title. But in the specific cases of the quarterbacks we’ve seen enjoy a resurgence recently — Jones, Darnold, Mayfield and, a few years ago, Geno Smith — each player spent some time as a journeyman, eventually landing in a place where he could learn from some of the best. Smith served as an understudy to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. The others took refuge in places with quarterback gurus such as Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell.

That seems to be the recipe that — whether by coincidence or by intention — these quarterbacks have followed to bring their careers back from the edge.

The question is whether that might have ripple effects across the quarterback market. 

In some respects, it might create bargaining power for NFL teams that hope to avoid paying their quarterback more than $55 million per year. The Houston Texans, for example, are going to pay C.J. Stroud. But what’s the right number? The Texans could pretend as if Mac Jones would do as well in their system as a reclamation project. 

That argument — if it leads to a Stroud discount — might help everyone have more success in the future. But it’s easy to see Stroud going the way of Tua or Lawrence — and subsequently having a big (and bad) impact on Houston’s team-building abilities. As promising as Stroud was in his rookie season, he remains inconsistent from Sunday to Sunday in his third season.

And then there’s the Carolina Panthers, who will have a much tougher decision to make with Bryce Young. We saw Carolina’s offense get worse without him on Sunday, as Andy Dalton flopped in relief of the injured QB1. But watching Young, you don’t get the sense he’s the absolute best option for Dave Canales’ offense. And Young is probably not worth $45 million per year — let alone $55 million. So how should the Panthers proceed? And how should Young proceed, for that matter?

What if the Panthers and Young acknowledged the elephant in the room: He is a starter for Carolina but probably a backup for most other teams? And if Young takes a Darnold-esque deal — three years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed — the Panthers could continue to build up the offense around him. It would be a fascinating alteration of the status quo. 

Maybe it’s most likely the Panthers and Young go their separate ways. But hopefully these reclaimed first-rounders give everyone pause. Because it’s likely Young could go get a master’s degree in quarterbacking under McVay and then take over an organization in 2027 or 2028.

The Panthers might be wondering: Why not cut out the middle man?

Meanwhile, Colts backup Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2023, looks like he needs to go to a place like Minnesota, L.A. or San Francisco to get his game right. In a best-case scenario, he’ll have to go the way of Jones (and the others). And maybe in two years, we’ll see a team like the Cleveland Browns take a chance on him — and perhaps even bring his career back from the dead.

The bottom line is that some quarterbacks can’t handle their contracts. And teams shouldn’t simply hand out mega-contracts to the next guy in line. Given the ephemeral and brutal nature of the sport, every quarterback will take the most money he can get. Because, frankly, that’s how the market works. But perhaps we’re seeing the QB bubble burst — or at least we’re seeing a market correction. It might make for some awkward conversations in the coming years between quarterbacks and their franchises. But it might also make for longer-lasting commitments between those franchises and their QBs. 

The quarterbacks who need a super strong supporting cast should take contracts that allow them to have one.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

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