The value name with one of the best long-term charts Josh Brown has ever seen
Josh — Today’s update of our Best Stocks in the Market List looks at the relatively recent outperformance of lower valuation names as the big growth stocks take a break. Sean’s going to talk about why the Jackson Hole speech could be a major catalyst for this trend to continue. We’ll give you all the recent high-level List data and then I’m going to show you some charts, including O’Reilly Automotive, Synchrony Financial, The Hartford Insurance Group and Allstate. Buckle up. Sector Leaderboard As of Aug. 25, there are 191 names on The Best Stocks in the Market list. Top Sector Ranking: Top Industries: Top 5 Best Stocks by Relative Strength: Sector spotlight: Sean — As you can see in the dashboard above, growth stocks have been leading while value has been lagging. Materials, real estate and energy are the bottom 3 sector exposures on our list — stocks in those sectors have been left behind. However, there’s been some newfound life within our unloved value stocks. Value stocks tend to benefit when interest rates are cut because lower borrowing costs improve profitability for capital-intensive and cyclical businesses, which make up the lion’s share of the value universe. Rate cuts also reduce the discount rate used in valuing future cash flows, which helps companies with steady but slower-growing earnings streams. In addition, lower yields on bonds make dividend-paying value stocks more attractive to income-oriented investors. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell confirmed to the market that rate cuts are coming. He noted that the job market was no longer solid, while still acknowledging the inflationary pressures going on. There is currently an 85% chance of a cut and a 15% chance of no cut for the Fed meeting in September, according to fed funds futures contracts. Value stocks responded accordingly on Friday. Small cap value was up 4%, homebuilders were up 5%, and transports were up 3%. On our list, some of the more value-oriented names started to heat up. The cheapest 2 (non-financial) stocks on our list on a P/E basis are O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) and General Motors (GM) , trading at a trailing 4x and 9x earnings. Look at these two stocks over the past month vs the S & P 500: Looking at our entire list, the cheapest 10% of stocks on the list returned an average of 5% the past month, while the 10% most expensive stocks on the list returned an average of 2% the past month. Jackson Hole could be the catalyst these beaten-down names need to catch up with everyone else. One month of the cheapest decile of names on our list outperforming the priciest decile by 300 basis points is nothing if you zoom out, but it could be a meaningful short-term rotation (1 basis point equals 0.01%). If the Fed delivers, momentum could extend this nascent rotation into value. Risk management Josh — Here are a few of the cheapest, most value-oriented names from our Best Stocks in the Market list to key off this important point Sean is making about the rotation. O’Reilly Automotive has one of the best long-term stock charts I have ever seen. It’s a giant in the car care and auto parts space and is referred to as a “cannibal company” thanks to a monster share buyback program that makes it look as though the company is literally eating itself. In the latest quarter the company repurchased 6.8 million shares at an average price of $90 in the open market for a cost of $617 million. ORLY told shareholders they’ve bought back a total of $1.46 billion shares since their buyback program began in 2011 at an average price of $18. That’s a $27 billion investment in shrinking the shares outstanding, which has substantially boosted the earnings per share and, by extension, the share price. Below is a five year chart with the 50– and 200-week moving averages in orange and blue respectively. I’d use the 50-week, now as $86, as a risk management tool. A violation of that without a quick recovery means something may have materially changed. Above it, I think you can ride the stock. Below is a one-year chart of Synchrony Financial (SYF) , a player in the credit card space, with an ultra-low PE ratio of 8.5x earnings. Watch for a low-volume pullback to around $70, which is where the stock broke out from. If it can hold on, I’d remain long. This is The Hartford Insurance Group (HIG) , which has clearly broken out above the prior resistance level of $130. Another value stock selling at 11.5x earnings in a tape where cheapness is being rewarded. You want to own it above that $130 level as it seeks to achieve a new range higher. Last one for today — this is Allstate (ALL) selling at 9.6x earnings. What I want you to pay attention to is that repeated failure of the stock to get above the $215 area since November. There are very few triple tops in this business, eventually I think it breaks through and stays there. But it’s still early, I would wait for it to happen. Putting this one on your radar as a potential breakout. Remember your ABCs – Always Be Cool. No rush. Will the value rotation persist into fall? Hard to say for sure but we now have dozens of cheap stocks on the list that have either broken out or are on the verge. We’ll keep you updated. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. INVESTING INVOLVES RISK. EXAMPLES OF ANALYSIS CONTAINED IN THIS ARTICLE ARE ONLY EXAMPLES. THE VIEWS AND OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE CONTRIBUTORS AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OFFICIAL POLICY OR POSITION OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC. JOSH BROWN IS THE CEO OF RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT AND MAY MAINTAIN A SECURITY POSITION IN THE SECURITIES DISCUSSED. 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