These stocks are consistently winning bets into earnings, says Evercore ISI
Stocks with a history of beating their earnings records, such as Booking Holdings and S & P Global , could continue to outperform, according to Evercore ISI. Tuesday marks the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season, with a slate of big and regional banks on the docket. Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel said the S & P 500’s earnings per share for the last quarter is expected to have grown 7% year over year. Due to the artificial intelligence revolution, the technology sector is expected to lead this expansion. But Emanuel also pointed to emerging signs of a heated capital market cycle as evidence that bubble concerns are intensifying and that security selectivity remains critical against the current market backdrop. “With investors expecting ‘More’ — S & P 500 surprises for YoY EPS growth have averaged 6% over the past year (~2x vs pre-Pandemic) — and with valuations extended, companies will need to surprise ‘More’ to deliver outperformance,” he wrote. “‘Earnings Exceeders’ — companies with strong double beat track records, relatively inexpensive valuations, with a history of outperformance/upward EPS revisions post-earnings results — could outperform even as sentiment toward Tech/Ai has cooled.” Emanuel included a list of such earnings exceeders. These stocks met the following criteria: Be a member of the Russell 3000 Have posted double beats (better-than-expected earnings and revenue) in at least seven of the last eight quarters with no double misses Outperforms the Russell 3000 by 1% or more in the month after reporting earnings Earnings revisions of more than 1% for the next 12 months Current price-to-equity ratios for the next 12 months trading at least at a 5% discount below their five-year average Evercore ISI has an outperform rating on each of the stocks in the table below. Stocks belonging to the technology and consumer discretionary sectors are prominently featured. Sentiment in these sectors — such as toward AI — may have become guarded, but beats are typically strong, he wrote. One name on the list was travel technology stock Booking Holdings, up 14% over the past 12 months. In its last eight earnings quarters, the company has exceeded earnings and revenue estimates. Bank of America upgraded the stock to buy from neutral in November, calling its AI risks “overdone.” “We believe the disintermediation risks to Booking from Google/OpenAI’s Agentic tools are overdone, with 2027E P/E now at 16x. We think Booking is well positioned with suppliers with less than 10% large chain hotel exposure,” wrote analyst Justin Post. “Booking can mitigate AI risks by leveraging: a) proprietary user data, b) supplier relationships ( > 50% of room nights direct linked to Booking, hard for AI agents to get links), and c) Genius loyalty benefits ( > 50% of bookings) to build competitive agentic AI capabilities.” Capital markets firm S & P Global has added 12% in the past year. The company has also topped earnings and revenue forecasts for eight straight quarters. Last month, Morgan Stanley named the stock one of its top picks for 2026. “In the backdrop of improving capital markets in ’26, we move SPGI (OW) to Top Pick,” wrote analyst Toni Kaplan. “In particular, we expect credit issuance to be above expectations driven by M & A recovery, AI datacenter financing, healthy refi walls, rate cuts, and stable economic growth.” Health tech platform Doximity , down 16% in the past 12 months, was another potential earnings exceeder. In December, Morgan Stanley upgraded the digital platform for medical professionals to an overweight rating from equal weight. Its price forecast of $65, up from $62, implies upside ahead of 48%. Analyst Craig Hettenbach pointed to Doximity’s 30% correction since its last earnings report on Nov. 6 as providing investors with an attractive entry point. He noted that shares of Doximity are currently trading at more than a 25% discount to their median post-Covid EV/EBITDA multiple. “Underperformance in DOCS is at odds with our checks on the business and strengthening platform engagement,” he wrote.
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