This energy ETF is set to break through a key level, charts show. How to play it
The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is trying to break a significant decade-long resistance level of $50 on the monthly chart. Will it succeed and break to new all-time highs? I believe it’s very possible, and I’m going to uncover two energy names that meet the specific criteria of a pretty refined technical and fundamental scan that could lead us to new all-time highs. The monthly chart of XLE shows the $50 price level being tested for the fourth time since 2014. The energy ETF is about 40% weighted to the integrated oil majors Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) , both showing impressive moves higher, so the entire space is gaining attention. I feel this fourth test of resistance is vulnerable to being defeated, setting up a move to all-time highs for six reasons: A massive U.S. snowstorm has created supply disruptions after knocking out crude and natural gas output and disrupted Gulf Coast refinery operations. Escalated geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East and other oil-producing regions are injecting a risk premium into crude markets. U.S. military involvement, geopolitical friction and broader concern about global production uncertainty are all contributing to increasing prices. Rotation into cyclical or value-oriented stocks and away from over-valued artificial intelligence stocks. Some analysts argue that institutions are underweight energy, especially with the multi-year range at the sector level, and any geopolitical and supply shortage developments can trigger outside flows into this space. Structural demand from AI and energy transition. AI data center buildout and the massive future need of electricity that will likely not be supplied by renewables and the “drill, baby, drill” policy of this administration keep fossil fuels in demand. U.S. dollar weakness: The USD is breaking an uptrend line that was born in 2011, which gives commodities a boom (see chart below). Crude oil has traced out a double bottom against support of roughly $55, broke a minor red downtrend line, and is now testing the 200-day moving average. A break above the 200-DMA and we could rally up to contend with the black dashed downtrend line from 2023 Drilling down with a scan of the leading energy stocks, I returned six names that met the following criteria: Sector: Energy Last price: greater than $10 Market cap: greater than $2 bn 50-day moving average greater than 200-day moving average: yes Increasing institutional ownership last quarter: yes Earnings per share growth next quarter (expected): greater than 10% Average EPS growth last two quarters: greater than 10% Average sales growth last two quarters: greater than 10% Return on equity last quarter: greater than 5% I found two names that are particularly interesting: Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) and BKV Corporation (BKV) Solaris Energy Infrastructure SEI has undergone a rapid transition from traditional oilfield services into high-growth, on-site power solutions for AI data centers and other critical energy infrastructure markets. This puts the company in a prime position to benefit from the coming power grid bottlenecks and future demand for reliable distributed power. It’s a $2 billion market cap company with 120% GAAP annual EPS growth and 94% revenue growth compared to 2024. The stock looks to be consolidating just below all-time highs ready to break through $60 resistance. BKV Corporation BKV is also a roughly $2 billion market cap name with a very similar looking chart pattern that is consolidating above the prior 2025 resistance-now-support looking to break the prior three-month range through $30. This company has posted and is expecting highly impressive earnings and revenue growth. BKV is a vertically integrated model combining natural gas production, midstream, power generation and carbon capture to meet strong demand from Texas power markets, which includes data center and industrial load expansion. If the 50% GAAP EPS and 27% topline growth expectations for 2026 unfold, we should see this stock at new all-time highs. I do not yet hold these names, but in the coming rebalance/re-allocation of our investor portfolios at Inside Edge Capital, I’m likely to add them both. — Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC We offer active stock alerts, portfolio management, as well as regular market updates like the idea presented above, here . DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. 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