Wells Fargo thinks hefty tax refunds will boost bitcoin
Some tax filers may get fatter refunds this year than in those past — a fact that is likely to boost investments into risk-on assets like stocks and bitcoin, according to Wells Fargo. That’s because the “big beautiful bill,” which was passed last summer, includes several favorable provisions for 2025 tax filers. Additionally, the IRS did not update its tax withholding tables last year, so workers are unlikely to see any surprises resulting from adjustments to their previously collected taxes. Those factors could lead to $150 billion flowing into markets by the end of March as more than 60% of tax refunds are issued, according to a new analyst note from Wells Fargo. The expected liquidity injection is likely to boost bitcoin and a variety of stocks favored by retail investors such as Boeing and Robinhood , the bank’s analysts added. “Additional savings from tax returns, especially for the high-income consumer will flow back into equities, in our view,” Wells Fargo analyst Ohsung Kwon said Sunday in the note. “Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return.” Bitcoin can serve as a proxy for liquidity, signaling shifts in investment patterns, the analysts noted. Domestic liquidity fell $105 billion over the past four weeks, according to Wells Fargo, while bitcoin pulled back roughly 29% in the past month. Wells Fargo listed more than two dozen stocks across industries, including utilities, financials and industrials, that are likely to outperform during tax season. They compiled the group of names by screening for stocks favored by retail investors over the past year, based on buy order volumes, per Wells Fargo Securities flows. These are a few stocks that made the cut: Robinhood The trading platform is set to see some upside amid a rush of retail investing driven by tax refunds, according to Wells Fargo. Robinhood has shed 31% over the past month, sliding alongside cratering digital asset prices . Last week, the firm said that crypto revenue fell to $221 million in the fourth quarter , down 38% year over year. At the same time, Robinhood’s operating expenses rose nearly 40% in the last quarter of 2025 compared to the year-ago period amid the firm’s bid to transform itself into a ” financial superapp .” Boeing The aircraft maker could rally as taxpayers get some money back into their pockets. Boeing shares are already up 32% over the past year. The company has been seeing robust demand for its airplanes, even after it suffered fallout in 2024 from a spate of accidents involving its aircraft, as well as a host of whistleblower complaints. Earlier this month, the firm said it delivered 46 airplanes in January, the third highest for that month in the company’s history.
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