We’re raising our CrowdStrike price target following a beat and raise quarter
CrowdStrike on Tuesday evening reported better-than-expected fiscal 2026 third-quarter results and forward guidance. The numbers, however, were not enough to power shares higher, given their roughly 24% advance since the cybersecurity company’s fiscal second-quarter print back in late August. That said, the latest beat and raise should help solidify recent stock gains and set the stage for further upside next year. Revenue in fiscal Q3 increased 22% year over year to $1.23 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $1.22 billion, compiled by market data provider LSEG. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased to 96 cents in the three months ending Oct. 31, beating the 94-cent estimate, according to LSEG. Why we own it Cybersecurity is a must-have for companies in the digital age. Led by co-founder and CEO George Kurtz, CrowdStrike is one of the best there is, along with fellow Club name Palo Alto Networks . The company specializes in endpoint protection through its AI-native platform called Falcon. Competitors: Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet , SentinelOne , Microsoft Portfolio weighting: 3.33% Most recent buy: March 10, 2025 Initiation date: Oct. 16, 2024 Bottom Line The October quarter was an encore performance from CrowdStrike — delivering better-than-expected results across the board, with record-high operating cash flow, adjusted operating income, EPS, free cash flow, and net new annual recurring revenue. The Falcon Flex subscription model is clearly helping to drive more business, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) tied to these accounts surging more than 200% versus the year-ago period. Falcon Flex allows customers to quickly deploy additional protection as needed, without all the red tape of going through the often-lengthy procurement process. Artificial intelligence benefits CrowdStrike in two ways: by increasing attack vectors in its customers’ digital infrastructure, resulting in more demand, and by strengthening CrowdStrike’s ability to protect customers against these attacks, resulting in more pricing power and cross-selling. As CEO George Kurtz said on the post-earnings conference call, “Businesses every day are having jarring lightbulb moments, witnessing AI-powered adversarial tradecraft firsthand. … Now, just as anyone can use AI to vibe code and become a software engineer, anyone can also now vibe hack, becoming a sophisticated adversary with AI.” He added that CrowdStrike is mission-critical. “No matter how the market swings, geopolitical tensions evolve, or what technologies are in vogue, our digital society mandates cybersecurity as a necessity, and now, more than ever, synonymous with that, CrowdStrike is a necessity.” CRWD YTD mountain CrowdStrike YTD This speaks to the nature of demand for CrowdStrike and other cybersecurity companies, such as fellow Club name Palo Alto Networks , and what these companies can provide in an all-encompassing, platform approach to digital protection. With attacks becoming more sophisticated and more frequent, companies can no longer afford to have a fragmented solution to cybersecurity. Kurtz said, “Cybersecurity in the agentic era demands a single platform. The criticality in being able to operate with agility, efficacy, and speed to stop breaches is having the data that controls and the actions in a single platform, not multiple platforms. Because when you have multiple platforms, by definition, you don’t have a platform. Tap switching and contact switching cost time. Data stitching doesn’t scale. These are the seams and cracks where adversaries thrive.” Kurtz’s comment about the “agentic era” refers to digital AI agents that can perform complex tasks and problem-solve with little to no human oversight. The proliferation of AI agents exponentially increases the ways hackers can breach systems. In mid-September, at CrowdStrike’s Fal.Con industry conference , the CEO described the rise of agentic AI as a “greater than 100x opportunity for CrowdStrike.” Given the fiscal third-quarter results, strong outlook, and our longer-term view that cybersecurity is a secular growth industry, now benefiting from the need to defend against AI-equipped hackers, using AI protection tools, we’re reiterating our 1 rating and increasing our CrowdStrike price target to $550 per share from $520. While falling 3% in after-hours trading, CrowdStrike shares were up 51% as of Tuesday’s market close. The stock is the Club’s fourth-best performer of 2025. Quarterly commentary Perhaps the most exciting metric, as it indicates the sustainability of the strength we saw in Tuesday night’s results, is net new annual recurring revenue, which came in at $265 million. That resulted in ARR at the end of the period of $4.92 billion, up 23% year over year and up 5.7% sequentially. Helping to drive that growth was Falcon Flex, with management noting that nearly 30% of ending ARR, or $1.35 billion, came from accounts that have adopted the new pricing model. On the call, Kurtz said the number of customers “reflexing,” or re-signing once their credits are used up, more than doubled sequentially, to more than 200 — with 10 customers “reflexing more than 2x their initial flex subscription.” Given the strong response, management expects the Falcon Flex model to become the company’s licensing standard. Guidance For full-year fiscal 2026, CrowdStrike management raised its outlook at the midpoint. The team now expects to realize revenue of between $4.7966 billion and $4.0866 billion, up from the prior range of between $4.7495 billion and $4.8055 billion. That compares to the LSEG consensus estimate of $4.784 billion. The adjusted earnings outlook was also raised, with the team now targeting an EPS range of $3.70 and $3.72, up from the prior $3.60 to $3.72, and comfortably ahead of the $3.67 estimate from LSEG. For its 2026 fiscal fourth quarter, the current quarter going on right now, management guided for revenue to be between $1.29 billion and $1.3 billion, which is better than the $1.293 billion the Street was looking for at the midpoint, according to LSEG. Adjusted EPS are expected to be between $1.09 and $1.11, better than the $1.08 the Street was looking for. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long CRWD, PANW. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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