White House warned staff on Iran war prediction market bets

The White House, asked for comment about the Journal’s report, did not deny that staff were sent the warning on making prediction market bets on Iran, but noted that all federal employees are barred from trading or placing bets on inside information.

“Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said in an email to CNBC on Friday.

“President Trump has been crystal clear: while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,” Ingle said.

The surge in popularity of prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, has been accompanied by growing questions about proper regulation and the potential for insider trading.

Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, earlier this week sent a letter to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig calling for an investigation into the irregular market activity that preceded Trump’s March 23 announcement.

“What kind of trader would make a massive trade at 6:49 a.m., 15 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement with billions of dollars at stake and without a hedge?” Torres asked in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday.

“The only plausible answer to that question is an insider trader,” Torres said. “Any other alternative is a statistical impossibility.”

Kalshi and Polymarket both announced they were tightening rules around insider trading on their platforms in separate statements released on the same day in March.