Why December is a time for winners on Wall Street
This year’s market winners should continue to outperform through December, according to Oppenheimer. Stocks had a rocky start to the month, with the S & P 500 , Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all lower on Monday. Momentum names like Super Micro Computer and Broadcom both fell nearly 3% in midday trading. However, December has been the best performing month of the year for the momentum factor since 1928, Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said in a note last week. The momentum factor tracks the performance of market leaders versus laggards over a prior 12-month basis, he said. “December outperformance suggests investors often look to sell losing stocks to offset capital gains tax liability—tax loss harvesting,” Wald wrote. The end of the year is typically when investors look to trim their tax bills by dumping underperforming stocks to realize capital losses and offset any capital gains. In addition, seasonal trends will be a tailwind to the overall market, Wald said. “We’ve found S & P 500 returns in December have been higher when the index starts the month above its 200-day average, as is currently the case,” he said. These are some of Oppenheimer’s top ideas that it also rates positively in its trend and momentum work. All are rated overweight at the firm and are trading above their 200-day average. Nvidia , which makes graphics processing units that are used in artificial-intelligence models, is seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom. It soared higher this year, but fell nearly 13% in November as investors become worried about tech valuations. The losing month came despite Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings beat . On Monday, Nvidia announced it took a $2 billion stake in Synopsys as part of a multi-year partnership aimed at accelerating computing and AI engineering solutions. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia year to date The stock has an average analyst rating of buy and 43% upside to the average price target, according to FactSet. Shares are up 33% year to date. Meanwhile, Lam Research’s stock has more than doubled this year. The company, which supplies semiconductor manufacturing equipment, topped earnings and revenue expectations when it reported fiscal first-quarter results in October. LRCX YTD mountain Lam Research year to date Lam Research has an average rating of overweight and 5.8% upside to the average price target, per FactSet.
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