Yardeni says next two trading days will test his call that the market bottom is in
Ed Yardeni expects that the volatile stock market has put in a bottom as geopolitical tumult often leads to buying opportunities. However, he concedes that nothing is certain as investors continue to watch the war-induced gyrations on Wall Street. The head of Yardeni Research last week said the S & P 500 ‘s 9.1% retreat from its record high set on Jan. 27 likely marked the low point. But he said there’s plenty that could go wrong. “The next two days could make or break our call,” Yardeni wrote in a market note posted Sunday evening. .SPX YTD line S & P 500 year to date While the market veteran is sticking to his bullish market call, he conceded that conditions are in flux, particularly after another round of saber-rattling from President Donald Trump . In a profanity-laced Truth Social post on Easter Sunday, the president declared that Tuesday would be “Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day,” implying that U.S. forces would accelerate their campaign against Iranian infrastructure. Trump demanded that Iran “Open the F—–‘ Strait” of Hormuz or “you’ll be living in Hell.” Trump has made similar threats before, and Yardeni noted that the president told other media outlets that there is a solid chance that a truce can be reached by Tuesday. Amid the noise from the war, history is on the market’s side, Yardeni said. “Our call of a market bottom doesn’t come with a money-back guarantee, of course,” he said. “However, history offers some reassurance: The S & P 500 has been higher two years after the past four major US military engagements, with gains of 31% to 44% following the Korean War, the Iraq War, the Gulf War, and World War II.” Moreover, the valuation for the large-cap index is attractive, having fallen from 23 times earnings on Oct. 27, 2025, to its current level around 19 times, while earnings rose 12.7%, he said. Other factors contributing to the bullish narrative are solid market breadth and record-high profit margins.
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