Here’s the case for 9,000 in the S&P 500 by the middle of next year, according to JPMorgan
It’s time to consider just how much higher stocks can rise from here. JPMorgan Private Bank sees a pathway for the S & P 500 to reach 9,000 by the middle of next year, or about a 22% above current levels. While that’s not the bank’s base case, it’s also a scenario that JPMorgan said is more plausible than investors currently believe. The key to unlocking those gains is higher productivity, or companies generating more sales at a lower cost, than ever before with the help of artificial intelligence. There were positive signs in the latest earnings season that AI could unlock a productivity boom for companies as businesses find more uses for AI. “The path to 9,000 extends beyond the tech sector,” read a note from J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s Kriti Gupta, a global investment strategist, and Nick Roberts, a portfolio manager. “It relies on broader AI adoption across sectors that increases productivity and bolsters margins across the board.” Earnings growth exceeded expectations in the latest reporting season, jumping 22.6% compared with the same period a year and up 15.3% just since the fourth quarter of 2025. The stock market has now scored six straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth, for the first time since the wake of the global financial crisis. Hard to imagine To be sure, it may be hard to imagine further gains. A consensus has formed on Wall Street that the stock market, after its rapid ascent off the March lows, is due for a period of consolidation as it digests the recent gains. Bond yields around the world are rising, a spooky development that could easily weigh on economic growth by stunting consumer spending and capital investment. Central banks are monitoring the energy shock from Iran, which is raising inflation and hurting consumers by lifting gasoline prices. But the fundamentals in the stock market are supportive of further gains. In the 1990s, the stock market boomed, delivering five straight years of 20%+ returns between 1995 and 2000. That came as productivity rose at an annualized clip of 2.8%. “It can happen again,” read the JPMorgan paper. In theory, that should also support a broadening of the market, over time.
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