Markets feeling that deja vu as Iran deal under strain, once again

Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Would it be too late to say: here we go again?

Less than a week after the U.S. and Iran signed their memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East, tensions have flared once again, with the status of the Strait of Hormuz up in the air.

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is poised to resign, according to media reports, following a decisive election victory by his rival Andy Burnham.

Iran claimed it shut the Straits of Hormuz again, saying the U.S. failed to meet its commitment to stopping the fighting in Lebanon and U.S. President Donald Trump started threatening to hit the country “even harder.”

Tehran had reportedly closed the critical waterway over the weekend, citing Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, breaking a condition that was in the MOU. Trump on Sunday threatened fresh strikes on Iran if the country’s leaders don’t “immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble.”

Last week, CNN reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tel Aviv would not be bound by the agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran, which means that a party not involved in the talks could actually have the power to scupper the deal.

His remarks came as Vice President JD Vance met with Iranian officials for the first round of negotiations in Switzerland, after talks had earlier been called off.

Vance said progress had been made toward ending violence in Lebanon, Reuters reported — though added that the two sides didn’t pursue a joint photo opportunity at the talks, and that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi didn’t publicly interact with Vance before his remarks.

Oil prices rose on the developments, with international benchmark Brent breaking above the $80 mark to reach $80.84, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed over 2% to $78.5.

U.S. stock futures dropped, with futures on all major indexes slipping Sunday stateside. But in Asia, markets started the day higher, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading gains.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reportedly set to resign after his rival Andy Burnham won a special election to the British parliament in decisive fashion, setting up a potential leadership contest. That follows massive losses by the Labour Party in local elections.

Media reports say that Starmer could step down as early as Monday, but no official word has come out of Downing Street as of yet.

Later this week, investors will be awaiting MSCI’s annual market-classification review on Tuesday for South Korea and Indonesia.

Seoul is eyeing inclusion in MSCI’s Developed Markets watchlist, a prerequisite for eventual upward reclassification. Jakarta, meanwhile, is hoping not to move — there’s a risk the index provider categorizes it as a Frontier Market from an Emerging Market.

In its Global Market Accessibility Review last week, MSCI had highlighted “investability concerns” in Indonesia.

Pixar’s ‘Toy Story 5’ lassos biggest opening weekend in franchise history with $160 million haul

Disney’s Toy Story franchise still has some buzz.

The fifth installment in the Pixar film series tallied $160 million during its opening weekend, the highest in franchise history. Internationally, “Toy Story 5” snared $152 million, bringing its estimated global haul for the three-day period to $312 million.

In total, the film series has collected more than $3 billion at the global box office since the first film debuted in 1995, with two of its installments surpassing $1 billion each worldwide.

— Sarah Whitten