Traders’ hopes fade for U.S.-Iran nuclear deal this year despite report on potential ceasefire agreement
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Chances that a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal will happen this year remained subdued on prediction markets after an Axios report revealed the two countries agreed to a ceasefire that still requires further negotiations to discuss nuclear demands.
There’s roughly a 55% chance the two countries will reach a nuclear deal by November, according to Kalshi traders. Odds that a deal is set before October are at 49% and before December at 55%, as of Thursday afternoon.
The Axios report, citing two U.S. officials and a regional source, said Trump has yet to approve a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) after the first three months of the war.
Though the report suggests an agreement on nuclear demands still requires “intensive negotiations,” it looks to be a priority. Iran will not pursue a nuclear weapon as part of the agreement, officials said.
The 60-day MOU will also address the disposal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, and how to address its enrichment, Axios reported.
“This is an agreement to get everybody to the table. We will work out the details in the negotiations,” one of the U.S. officials told Axios.
Economic, military options
If Iran fails to meet nuclear demands during negotiations, U.S. officials said Trump will have economic or military options on the table.
Officials said shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will be “unrestricted,” Iran will remove all mines within 30 days and ships will face no tolls or harassment.
The U.S. naval blockade will be lifted in proportion to the restoration of commercial shipping, officials added. Withdrawal of U.S. forces is also up for final agreement.
After the report, West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell below $89 a barrel, down from nearly $91. Contracts recently traded closer $89.34 per barrel, as of Thursday afternoon.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both climbed to fresh intraday records after the Mideast report.
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