Two Wall Street analysts are getting bullish on a Target turnaround. Here’s why
Target shares are surging in 2026, putting it on track to snap four straight years of losses – and analysts say the rally could pick up steam as the retailer overhauls its corporate strategy. The big-box store, which saw its shares plunge nearly 28% in 2025, is up about 26% this year. The company is in the midst of a revamp , which it announced in March. In a bid to bring in more shoppers, Target will expand the offerings in its grocery department, as well as roll out a dedicated display for high-end cosmetics and offer a wider range of sports merchandise. “Initially an optionality stock idea; we now see a path to a credible improvement story,” Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman said Tuesday in a note to clients. “TGT’s turnaround starts with winning back guests/foot traffic, which takes time, but is happening.” Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight rating on Target. It has a $145 price target on shares, suggesting 21% upside from Tuesday’s close. The retailer’s overhaul has also prompted Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe to be more bullish on Target. The analyst noted that the company’s recovery seems largely misunderstood by his peers on the Street. “The market is ~largely treating TGT as a slow comp recovery in ’26, but the earnings opportunity is likely misframed,” Tarlowe said Wednesday in a note to clients. Jefferies has a buy rating on Target. It has a $140 price target on shares, implying 17% upside. Target’s turnaround comes after the company posted several sales declines in key categories, including home and apparel. Those slumps have largely driven down the retailer’s stock in recent years. Target has lost more than half of its value since hitting a record high just north of $268 in November 2021. But, the stock has recently shown signs of a turnaround, including far outperforming the S & P 500 this year. TGT mountain 2025-10-10 Target stock has been climbing since last October. “The more powerful driver of upside is not a sharp traffic rebound (of course the easy compares help this year), but improved category mix, better markdown discipline, and the return of operating leverage in a business with a highly-fixed cost structure,” Tarlowe wrote. Jefferies is forecasting that the retailer’s earnings per share will grow to more than three times net sales in 2026. Near-term drivers for the company include changes to Target’s consumable categories like Food & Beverage and Beauty, while a shakeup in its Home Furnishings & Décor category could provide a boost later in the year, per Morgan Stanley. The banks’ calls go against consensus on the Street. Of the 39 analysts covering the stock, 24 have a hold rating on shares, while just 12 have a buy or strong buy rating on it, according to LSEG.
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